With Just Days to Go Before Election Day, The 2025 Federal Election Is Shaping Up to Be One of the Most Closely Watchared –and MISUNDERSTOOD –in Recent Memory.
Most Polls, Including Our At Abacus Data, Show a Tight Race. For the Past Three Weeks, We’ve Consently Had the Liberals ahead Of the conserevatives by 2 to 3 points nationally. Among Those who have already voted or one But in our electral system and in the Current Context, that would be penty for the libairls to win a majority.
Becuse in Canada, a party dosn’t need to win the most votes to win the most seats. And if there’s one think conserevatives show know by now, it’s this: Winning the popular vote is not now.
VOTER EFFICINCY: The Seat -Vote DiscONNNECT
Let’s Start with a Basic Fact that Oft Gets Lost in Political Coveage: Canada Does Not Elect Its Goovernment Throw A Single National Vote. It Elects 343 Individual Members of Parliament, Each from a Local Riding. The party that wins the Most Seats – ASSUMING IT The Gain Confense – Forms Goovernment.
This is where Voter Efficiencey Comes in. A party is considared eFFICIENT when its Support is spree out in such a way that it wins of ridings by Small Margins, and dosn’t Wase Votes in Ridings IT CANT WIN OR Already Has Lockard Up. The Liberals, Time and Again, Have Master This. They Vote is well Distribtuted Across Urban, Suburban, and Battleground Ridings In Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. In card
This means that to win as many seats as the Liberals, the conserevatives don’t just have to make them in national support -thehey Have to Substantially Outperform them.
A tale of two elections -end a system challenge
We’ve Seen This Dynamic Play Out Before. In 2019, Andrew Scheer’s conserevatives by the Popular Vote with 34.3 Percent Compaed to the Liberals’ 33.1 Percent. But the Liberals Won 36 More Seats and Stayed in Goovernment. In 2021, The Story reported ITSELF: The Conservatives Edged out the Liberals in Votes, but Still Came up Short in Seats.
Fast Forward to Today, and the Polling Shows the Liberals with a Slight Lead. But let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that Most Pollsters are UndEESTIMATING CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT AGAIN –as They did By 1 to 3 points In the Past Two Elections. Let’s Apply A 2-Point Boost to the conserevatives and a 2-POINT Discount to the Liberals Based on our Latest Abacus Data Numbers. That would Give us a national vote share of:
- Liberal: 39 Percent
- Conservative: 39 Percent
- NDP: 11 Percent
- Bloc Québécois: 7 Percent
A tie in the national vote. So who wins?
According to the Seat Project Simulation at Toooclosetocall.ca, The Result Wald Be:
- Liberals: 168 seats
- Conservatives: 132 seats
- BLOC: 32 seats
- NDP: 11 seats
- Grens: 0
In Others Words: A Comfortable Liberal Minority.
What if the conserevatives Win The Popular Vote?
Let’s Move the Needle Again. Suppose the conserevatives surge and win the popular vote by 2 POINTS –40 Percent to 38 Percent for the Liberals. Based on the regional redeistribution of that support, The Model ESTIMATES that The Result Welf Be:
- Liberals: 168 seats
- Conservatives: 141 seats
- BLOC: 32 seats
- NDP: 10 seats
Yes, Even if the conserevatives beat the libairls by 2 Points Nationally, They Still Finish More Than 25 Seats Behind.
People Wave Signs As Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre Speaks During A Rally in Montreal, Wednesday, June 19, 2024. Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press.
How is that posible? BECEUUSE The Extra Votes Oft Come where they did not need them-willral alberta, Safe Seats in Sasatchewan, Or Deep-Blue Strongholds in Southern Ontario. Meanwhile, in the Dense Suburban Battlegrounds of the GTA or Lower Mainland BC, a FEW Thousand Votes Can Swing Multiple SEATS.
What it takes for a conserevative majority
So, what will it take for Pierre Poilievre and the consfatives to win the 170-Plus Seats Needed for a majority?
Using The Same Model, We Find them’d Need to Win About 42 Percent of the Vote and Lead The Liberals by 6 Points Overall – ASSUMING The Ndp Get 11 Percent and the Bloc 7 Percent.
That’s a 6-app National Lead-end the conserevatives would need to get a Larger Share of the Vote.
And the regional math is just as Daunting. To get Close to a majority, the conserevatives would need to:
- Win British Columbia by 8 Points
- Take Ontario by 7
- Hit 27 Percent In Quebec
- Capture 60 Percent of the Vote in Alberta
- Hold Libraals to Under 28 Percent in Ontario and Alberta Combined
That’s not just a win. That’s Close to A Blowout. And biced on Current Trends, it would require a 7 to 10 point swing from where the Race Stands Now –a Swing that Would Represent One of the Biggest Polling Misses in Canadian History.
The Liberal Efficience Advantage
Why is this seriousing?
Partly, It’s The Liberal Coalition. Their Support is Urban, Diverse, and Consation in Vote-Rich regions. The ndp, which in the past helped Split Progressive Votes, is running weaker Than Usual –Barely Holding ono Half of Its 2021 Support. That Means The Liberals Are Consolidating Much of the Center-Left Vote. And with carney’s favouledals Still High, they’re also public in sound conserevative switches (Mostly Baby Boomers) Concered About Global Instality and the Trump Factor.
Meanwhile, the conserevatives would run up Big Wins where they did not need them, and struggle to break Through in regions when tight races matter Most.
The Bottom Line
Unleess Something Dramatic Happy in these Final Days-Like A Massive Polling Miss or A. Even if they also
The Cruel Irony for Conservatives is that they are the probably going to get more votes few last time. They could Even Win The Most. But they are Unlikely to Win The Right Votes, in the Right Places.
And that’s the difference Between Winning The Fight and Forming Goovernment in Canada.
