EKOS PREDICTS Liberal Majority «Ekos Politics

[Ottawa – April 27, 2025] We Submit Our Final Poll for the 2025 Federal Election. We are selecting our 3- Day Rolling IVR POLL AS Choice to Predict The Final Vote Outcome. Our Chosen Final Poll Shows A Stable Six-Point Libair Lead (43.6 Per Cent Versus 37.5 Per Center for the Conservatives), Whiche WeIVE Will Produce A 184-Seat Majority Goovernment. The ndp is in a distant thred place at 9.2 points.

Our Final Preditor of the Seat Outcomes is as follows:

We also inclde a separaate hybrid polling the 3- Day IVR Roll-UP With a Parallel online Sample from our Probility-Based Research Panel, Probitit. The Merged Poll Shows a Stronger 10-Point Lead, But we are more Confident and Choose The Six-Point Lead As our Preditation of Vote Outcome.

Ekos was Alone in Notting that the Massive Conservative Lead Had Evaporated by the End of Januari and We then SAW The Liberals Moving INTO What Appo Rehed to Be a Majority Position Roughly A month This is Been the Largest Transformation of the Voter Landscape in Modern Canadian History.

We are confature that What was Driving This Profound Shift Was a Vision Public Recoil from Trump 2.0. This Saw Mark Carney As Expectations of Trump 2.0 Were Pretty Low, Nearly Two-thirds of Canadians SAID IT WAS WORSE ThNA The Humble Expects They Had BeFore Watching The Cavalcade of Shocking Announcements And appointments emanating from the Trump Administration.

At the OutSet of this Campaigen, We Noted that We Expected Some Erosion of this HUGE New LED for the Liberals. They are, how is, Still 24 Points AHEAD of How Entered the Year, and Poined for What Appars to Be a MAJORICIY OUTCOME. Notably, of the Record Advance Vote, The Liberals Have a Very Sizeable Nine-Point Lead. A Massive Late Swing to the Conterevatives Coup Prevent A Majority, But this Seems Extremely Unlikely with Over 40 Per Cent of Votes Already Cast. Our Final Days of Polling also show the conserevative advantage with the Yet-To-Vote Had Disabpeared (in Fact, The Liberals Have a Three-Point Edge with this Group), Whiche Makes Any Significant Consservate Comback Highly Improbable.

Citizens Tell Us this Has Been A On decre-IN-A-LifeTime Election, Which Represents A Fundamental Contest for Two Verry Direction Alternate Futures in What Most Believe Will Be A Fundamentaly Changed World Order. Most Think We will come out of this in a better plate despite the imdiate disruption and sarabice.

In Closing, we will like to thank the Tens of Thousands of Citizens Who Generously Participated in OR Polling Over the Last Fe months.

Methodology:

This Research Draws on Results from Two surveys. The first survey was contact using interactive voice response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter them preferences by pubish the keypad on themsone phon, Rather Than Telling them to an operator. In An Effort to Reduce the Coverge Bias of Landline-only Random Digit Dialling (RDD), we created a dual landline/Cell Phone RDD Sampling Frame for this Research. As a result, we are an aike to accept it with a Landline and Cell Phone, as well as Cellphone-only Households and Landline-only Households.

The Field Dates for the Three-Day Roll-UP Are April 24-26, 2025. In Total, a Random Sample of 1,124 Canadians Aged 18 and Over Rsponded to the Survey. The Margin of Error Associated with the Total Sample is +/- 3.0 Percentage Points, 19 times out of 20.

The Field Dates for the Five-Day Roll-UP APRIL 22-26, 2025. In Total, A Random Sample of 1,918 Canadians Aged 18 and Over Rsponded to the Survey. The Margin of Error Associated with the Total Sample is +/- 2.2 Percentage Points, 19 times out of 20.

The Remaining Survey Was Conduted Using Ekos’ Unique, Hybrid Online/Telephone Research Panel, ProbIt. Our Panel Offers Exhaustive Coverage of the Canadian Population (IE, Internet, Phone, Cell Phone), Random Recruitment (in Other Words, Partications are Recruited Randomly, They Do Not Opt Themselves INTO OUR Panel), and equal probability sampling. All Respondents to our Panel are RECURIDED by Telephone Using Random Digit Dialing and Are Confirmed by Live Interviewers. Unlike Opt-in Online Panels, ProbIt Supports Margin of Error Estimates.

The Field Dates for the ProbIt Survey Are April 24-26, 2025. In Total, a Random Sample of 681 Canadians Aged 18 and Over Responded to the Survey. Where is Merged with the Three-Day IVR POLL, The Total Sample Size is 1,805, Yielding A Margin of Error of +/–3 Percentage Points, 19 Times Out of 20.

Please not that the Margin of Error Increases when All Census Data.

Ekos Follows the Cric public OPINION Research Standards and DiscLosure Requirements.

Please click Here For a Copy of the Data Tables from the Three-Day Roll-UP (April 24-26, 2025).

Please click Here For a Copy of the Data Tables from the Five-Day Roll-UP (April 22-26, 2025).

Please click Here For a Copy of the Data Tables from the Hybrid IVR-PROBIt Survey (April 24-26, 2025).

Please click Here For a Copy of the Questionnaire that was used for the IVR SURVEY.

Please click Here For a Copy of the Questionnaire that was used for the probIt Survey.