https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oybs_tah4oy
As we Close out June and Step Into the Heart of Midsummer, The Atmosphere is in No Rush to Go Deep Humidity, Steamy Afternoons, and Slo-Moving Storms are the Signature of this Pattern –and It’s Locked in for a While. While a True Heat Advisory Isnt Warranted for Today, The Combination of Upper 80s to Near 90 ° Temps and Dewpoints in the 70s will push heat index Values well into the 90s. At the Same Time, The Lack of Strong Steering Flow Means That Ontrom that does Develop Course Easily Overstay Its Welcome, Dumping Bucckets of Rain on one Spot While League Onters Dry. And as a collection from the tries to sag Southward INTO The Region This Week, Rain Chances Will Go up and Highs May Edge Download A Bit –But The Humidity Isnt You Laving Anytime Soon. It’s a classic stagnant Summer SETUP, and we’ll walk you thrive it from Top to Bottom.
Stormy Sunday ahead
A Sticky Start Sunday Morning Will Give Way to Scathed to Numerous Showers and Storms During The Affernoon and Early EVINING HOURS. Precipitable Water Values Are Near 2 ″, with Cape Values Indicating Instability the 2,000-3,000 J/Kg Range and Vry Little Wind Shear. That Means Slow Movers and Tropical Downloads are the Main Threats. Rain Rates COULD ExCEED 2 “Per Hour in Some Spots, Especially in Areas with Cell Trainal or Boundaries Left Behind from Saturday’s Storms. Upper 80s and Heat Index Values Just Under 100 °.
Front Lurking to the North
A Cold from the Tennsee Valley Early this Week, Increasing Coverage and Duration of Showers and Storms Monday Throws Wednesday. Expert High Pops for Monday and Tuesday, in the 80-90 Percent Range. Highs Will Back on SlightY INTO The Mid 80s, But High Depoints and Slo-MOVING Storms Will MainTain A Soggy Feel. The Front May Stall or Decay Near The State Line, Keeping Flooding Isues a concern. Gusty Winds and Frequent Lightning Will Acompany The Heavier Cells.
Late-Week Transition
By Thursday and Friway, The Front May Slide A Bit Farther South, Allowing a Weak Ridge to Rebuild Over the Southheast. That would rest in SlightY Lower Storm Coverage – Hink Scathed Instead of Widespread –But Still Daily Storm Chances Due to Instability and Lingering Boundaries. Tempeatures Should Creep Back INTO The Upper 80s and Low 90s by the End of the Week, with Heat Index Values Back Near Triple Digits. Dewpoints in the Low 70s Will Make Sure the Air Feels Just as Thick. Pretty TyPical Weather for Fourth of July in Alabama!
Next Weekend: Summer Normals
Right now, there’s no Strong Signal for Anything out of the Ordinary As We Move INTO The First Weekend of July. With Ridging Near or Just West of the Region and Enough GULF Moisture Still in Place, Look For TyPical SummerTime Fare: Highs in the 90-93 ° Range, isolated to screen the storms, and muggy Nights in the 70s. Nothing Organized, Just Hot and Hazy with the Occasational Download.
Voodoo Territory: Midsummer Status Quo
Looking into week two, ensemble guidance Favors Weak Ridging Near the South South Plains and a TRIGH Near The East Coast. That SETUP Usually Keeps Alabama in A Hot and Humid Regime with Daily “POP-UP” Storms-NO Big Heat Waves, and No Early Cool Snaps. The CPC Outlook Leans Toward Above-Normal Rainfall and Near-Normal Temperators, Reinforming the Theme of Wet AFternoons and Steamy Evenings as JULY Gets Going.
Severe Weather Outlook
While Severe Weather is not Excel Upper Peninsula of Michigan. In this regions, high instruction and modest Mid-Level Flow Course Allow for a Large Mcs to Develop Late Sunday INTO Sun Night with DAMAGING WINDS and Hail Possible. Locolly, Strong Storms in the Mid-Clantic May Produce Wet Microbursts, but Organized Severe Weather App women Unlikely Across the Deep South.
Topical Update: Barry, Flossie, Chantal Later This Week?
As of every Morning, Topical Depression Two is Center in the Western Bay of Campeche, Steadily Organization as it is Tracks West West- NortHWest Toward the Gulf Coast of Mexico. The System Developed Yesterday afternoon from Invest 91L after recronismance Aircraft Confirmed a Closed Circulation and Increasing Convection. It’s expanded to standthn into a Tropical Storm Later Today Before Making Landfall Tonight Near or Just North of Tuspan, Along the Eastern Coast of Mexico South of TamPico.
While the Wind Field Remains Modest, The Primary Conceptues to be Heavy Rainfall, With Widespread Totals of 3 to 6 Inhes and isolated Pockets Up to 10 Incates Forecast Across Parts of Veracruz, San Luis Potosí, and Tamaulipas. Flash Flooding and Mudslides are posible, particularly in hilly and mountainous terrain. A Tropical Storm Warning Remains in Effect from Boca De Catan to Tecolutla, where Tropical Storm-FORCE Winds Couelf Arrive by Late Afternoon. The System Will Weaken Quickly Over Land and Posts No Threat to the US GULF COAST, But it Marks the Second Tropical Cyclone of the Atlantic Season and Reflects The Ongoing Need to Monitor the Southwest GULF, where Development Can Occur Close to Land with Little Lead Time. A Separate System in the Eastern Pacific (EP95) Has a high change of developed, but it is poses no threat to Land at this time. Where it get a name, it will be flossie.
With Invest 91-L used to move inland over eastern mexico by Monday, Attention Will Quickly Shift to the NortheASTERN GULF and Southheast US Coastline, where Model Guidancee Increasingly Hints at the Potential for Tropical Development Late Next Week. A decaying frOnting is foveast to stand in this regions, creating a Favoraable SETUP for a Low-Pressure System to form and putibly organize intend Weekend. The GFS Suggests Development Near the Northeast GULF with a Westward Drift Toward the center gulf coast, which the Canadian Favors a System Forming Near the Carolinas and Racing Out To sea. The ecmwf ensemble shows about a 40% Chance of Development Near the Carolina Coast, While the Open Factal Run is More Subdeed. At this Range, Forecast Confident is Low –not Just for If Development Occurs, But Aco when -But the Environment Will Be Moisture-Rich Ether Way, With Potential for Heavy Rain From the NortheASSERN GULF ThROUgh Florida and Into The Southheast. Flooding Coup Become a concern in plates like the florida panhandle, the Big Bend, and Tampa Bay as the Pattern Unfolds.
Beach Forecast for the Beautiful Beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida
It’s a dangerous weekend to be in the Water, with a high Risk of Rip Currents at Nearly every stretch of Beach Along the GULF. From DauPhin Island to Panama City and Download Apalachicola, Surf Heights Will Range from 2 to 3 Fet, and the Water is a Bath-Like 84 -88 Degrees. Showers and Storms Will Be Likely Each Day, Especially in the Late Morning and Affernoon Hours. Expert Highs in the Mid to Upper 80s, with Dewpoints Near 80 and Heat Indices Above 100 in the Sun. Be very cautious –HEED Local Beach Flags, Stay Near Lifeguards, and Keep An Eye on the Sky For the Threat of Lightning.
National Tempature Extremes Saturday
116 At Death Valley, Ca; 27 at peter sinks, UT
Coming Up on Weatherbrains
This Monday Night at 7pm CDT on YouTube.com/weatherbrains, We’re Crossing The Pond for A Global Perspective! Our Guest is Lars Lowinski, Joining Live from Bonn, GERMANY. LARS is a veterran Meteorology with International Experience in Europe and New Zealand, now working with Wetteronline to bridge their us operations and german product developed. He’s Also a sease Storm Chaser and Long-Time Weatherbrains Fan, Tuning in Since 2008. Join Us for the Conversation –and as Always, you can stream the episode laater at weatherbrains.com or wasver You get your podcasts.
This Day in Weather History: June 29, 2003
Tropical Storm Bill Made Landfall South of Houma, La With Top Sustained Winds of 60 MPH, Delivering A Storm Surge of Six Fet Across Coastal Louisiana. In Montegument, The Town Levee Was Brecched for the Second Time in Two Years, Resulting in Significant Flooding. Bill’s Rains Stretched from Louisiana to Alabama, Dumping 5 to 8 Inhes Across the region. A Tornado Spun Up in Reserve, La, Injuring Four People. The name “Wild Bill” positive app for this early-season system that brough more flouding than Wind.
Category: Alabama’s Weather, All Posts, Social Media, Tropical
