Posted on: 10/07/2025 (Last update: 10/07/2025 time: 20:16)
Bethlehem- Together- in light of the developments on the security and political scene, expectations in the Israeli capital market are increasing in the continued high value of the shekel against the dollar.
Two senior hedge fund officials expressed similar reviews about the continuation of this height, albeit for various reasons.
According to Ury Tuwal, CEO of Toful Investment Company and Chairman of the Harvager Fund, “Althanda Capital”, the dollar has become an actual indication of fear and uncertainty in the local market.
He told the Israeli newspaper Maariv: “With the stability and improved of the security situation, the dollar is weakened.”
Tofal states that the dollar exchange rate was at the beginning of the year about 3.65 shekels, but it gradually decreased after a series of security incidents.
He adds that after the dramatic hostage deal, he decreased to 3.5 shekels, then later – with the campaign against Iran successfully and a sense of market stability – the exchange rate decreased to less than 3.4 shekels.
In the scenario of an imminent ceasefire in Gaza and the end of the fighting, it is expected that an additional decrease in the exchange rate of the dollar is expected: “We are likely to witness the approach of the dollar exchange rate of 3.2, and perhaps less.
He added: “In the scenario of expanding Ibrahim’s agreements to include other countries such as Syria, Saudi Arabia and others, the exchange rate of 3 shekels for the dollar or less is a realistic possibility, which is completely reasonable.”
Eviatar bin David, chief economist of the Vertecal hedge fund, believes that there is an opportunity for the shekel’s continued strength.
According to him, many forgot that the shekel was at stronger levels against the dollar and the euro in late 2021 and during 2022, and now there are conditions that may return the local currency to normal.
Bin David refers to three main factors that may support this trend: increases in the financial markets, the general weakness of the dollar around the world, and reduce possible interest rates by the US Federal Reserve – mainly as a result of slowing inflation and not necessarily stagnation.
It claims that the year season also plays a role: “July is considered one of the most positive months of the year,” he explained.
He added that the rise in American stock markets may push Israeli institutional investors to increase the hedging of their investments abroad, which contributes to increasing demand for the shekel.
Bin David notes that trading sizes are relatively low during the summer, which increases fluctuations. Any movement in the exchange rate of the dollar – especially if it continues to decline – may be more severe than usual.
In addition, and with the American Federal Reserve seeking a bolder interest rate approach, this may be narrowed by the interest rate gap between Israel and the United States, and provides additional support to the shekel.
